The Ref Was Right, How to Talk About Probability in March Madness, also in Average April, May Too…

The sun comes up in the east and sets in the west, you may have different words an for these things and ascribe them different meanings but the underlying physical thing is extremely consistent. In the world of null hypothesis testing, you should be completely comfortable rejecting the null. Coin flips are interesting, they are wobbly. I once had a large room of people flip coins, after the aggregated first round of flips (>500) we had a definite preference for heads, the second round had a…